A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic^1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches¹, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach² that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities³ in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Lives saved and lost in the first six month of the US COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective cost-benefit analysis.

In the beginning of the COVID-19 US epidemic in March 2020, sweeping lockdowns and other aggressive measures were put in place and retained in many states until end of August of 2020; the ensuing economic downturn has led many to question the wisdom of the early COVID-19 policy measures in the US. This study's objective was to evaluate the cost and benefit of the US COVID-19-mitigating policy intervention during the first six month of the pandemic in terms of COVID-19 mortality potentially averted, versus mortality potentially attributable to the economic downturn. We conducted a synthesis-based retrospective cost-benefit analysis of the full complex of US federal, state, and local COVID-19-mitigating measures, including lockdowns and all other COVID-19-mitigating measures, against the counterfactual scenario involving no public health intervention. We derived parameter estimates from a rapid review and synthesis of recent epidemiologic studies and economic literature on regulation-attributable mortality. According to our estimates, the policy intervention saved 866,350-1,711,150 lives (4,886,214-9,650,886 quality-adjusted life-years), while mortality attributable to the economic downturn was 57,922-245,055 lives (2,093,811-8,858,444 life-years). We conclude that the number of lives saved by the spring-summer lockdowns and other COVID-19-mitigation was greater than the number of lives potentially lost due to the economic downturn. However, the net impact on quality-adjusted life expectancy is ambiguous.

An age-structured SEIR model for COVID-19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost.

Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID-19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID-19 variants have a strong association with age, while restrictive lockdown measures have association with negative mental health outcomes in some age groups. Reduced economic prospects may also afflict some age cohorts more than others. Motivated by this, we propose a model to describe COVID-19 community spread incorporating the role of age-specific social interactions. Through a flexible parameterisation of an age-structured deterministic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed (SEIR) model, we provide a means for characterising different forms of lockdown which may impact specific age groups differently. Social interactions are represented through age group to age group contact matrices, which can be trained using available data and are thus locally adapted. This framework is easy to interpret and suitable for describing counterfactual scenarios, which could assist policy makers with regard to minimising morbidity balanced with the costs of prospective suppression strategies. Our work originates from an Irish context and we use disease monitoring data from February 29th 2020 to January 31st 2021 gathered by Irish governmental agencies. We demonstrate how Irish lockdown scenarios can be constructed using the proposed model formulation and show results of retrospective fitting to incidence rates and forward planning with relevant "what if / instead of" lockdown counterfactuals. Uncertainty quantification for the predictive approaches is described. Our formulation is agnostic to a specific locale, in that lockdown strategies in other regions can be straightforwardly encoded using this model.

The Cost of Providing the Foundational Public Health Services in Ohio.

OBJECTIVES: To examine levels of expenditure and needed investment in public health at the local level in the state of Ohio pre-COVID-19. DESIGN: Using detailed financial reporting from fiscal year (FY) 2018 from Ohio's local health departments (LHDs), we characterize spending by Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS). We also constructed estimates of the gap in public health spending in the state using self-reported gaps in service provision and a microsimulation approach. Data were collected between January and June 2019 and analyzed between June and September 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Eighty-four of the 113 LHDs in the state of Ohio covering a population of almost 9 million Ohioans. RESULTS: In FY2018, Ohio LHDs spent an average of $37 per capita on protecting and promoting the public's health. Approximately one-third of this investment supported the Foundational Areas (communicable disease control; chronic disease and injury prevention; environmental public health; maternal, child, and family health; and access to and linkages with health care). Another third supported the Foundational Capabilities, that is, the crosscutting skills and capacities needed to support all LHD activities. The remaining third supported programs and activities that are responsive to local needs and vary from community to community. To fully meet identified LHD needs in the state pre-COVID-19, Ohio would require an additional annual investment of $20 per capita on top of the current $37 spent per capita, or approximately $240 million for the state. CONCLUSIONS: A better understanding of the cost and value of public health services can educate policy makers so that they can make informed trade-offs when balancing health care, public health, and social services investments. The current environment of COVID-19 may dramatically increase need, making understanding and growing public health investment critical.

The economic and public health impact of intellectual property licensing of medicines for low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Non-exclusive voluntary licensing that is access-oriented has been suggested as an option to increase access to medicines to address the COVID-19 pandemic. To date, there has been little research on the effect of licensing, mainly focused on economic and supply chain considerations, and not on the benefits in terms of health outcomes. We aimed to study the economic and health effect of voluntary licensing for medicines for HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: A robust modelling framework was created to examine the difference between scenarios, with (factual) and without (counterfactual) a Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) licence for two medicines, dolutegravir and daclatasvir. Data were obtained from MPP licensees, as well as a large number of external sources. The primary outcomes were the cost savings and health impact between scenarios with and without MPP licences across all LMICs. Through its licences, MPP had access to the volumes and prices of licensed generic products sold in all covered countries on a quarterly basis. These data informed the volumes, prices, and uptake for the past factual scenarios and were the basis for modelling the future factual scenarios. These scenarios were then compared with a set of counterfactual scenarios in the absence of the studied licences. FINDINGS: Cumulatively, between 2017 and 2032, the model's central assumptions predicted an additional uptake of 15·494 (range 14·406-15·494) million patient-years of dolutegravir-based HIV treatments, 151 839 (34 575-312 973) deaths averted, and US$3·074 (1·837-5·617) billion saved through the MPP licence compared with the counterfactual scenario. For daclatasvir-based HCV treatments, the cumulative effect from 2015 to 2026 was predicted to be an additional uptake of 428 244 (127 584-636 270) patients treated with daclatasvir, 4070 (225-6323) deaths averted, and $107·593 (30·377-121·284) million saved with the licence compared with the counterfactual scenario. INTERPRETATION: The chain of effects linking upstream licensing to downstream outcomes can be modelled. Accordingly, credible quantitative estimates of economic and health effects arising from access-oriented voluntary licensing were obtained based on assumptions that early generic competition leads to price reductions that influence procurement decisions and enable the faster and broader uptake of recommended medicines, with beneficial economic and health effects. FUNDING: Unitaid.

COVID-19 Vaccination Efforts: Is Afghanistan Prepared?

A country's preparedness for a prompt and successful implementation of vaccination programs plays a pivotal role in disease control and prevention. As it stands now, Afghanistan seems to be ill-prepared to embrace a successful implementation of the COVID-19 vaccination program because of a spate of challenges. These include, but are not limited to, the insufficient number of vaccinators, a dearth of fully integrated functioning cold chain, challenging geographical barriers, cultural issues, insecurity, and protracted conflict. The COVID-19 infodemic along with vaccine mistrust in the country will lead to a pervasive public vaccine hesitancy in Afghanistan, which will present serious obstacles to the COVID-19 immunization efforts. The politicization of the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) and the complaints of embezzlement and misuse of the pandemic aid have already eroded public trust during the pandemic. To ensure a large-scale and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, the cold chain infrastructure should be strengthened, and the immunization personnel trained. Antivaccination propaganda and misinformation should be tackled with effective communication approaches and effective community engagement, which consider culturally relevant messages appropriate to the culture and people. The allegations of corruption should be addressed to revive public trust in public health interventions, including COVID-19 vaccination.

Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic.

A detailed review of the outbreak of COVID-19.

The disease COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 is the third highly infectious human Coronavirus epidemic in the 21s⁢t century due to its high transmission rate and quick evolution of its pathogenicity. Genomic studies indicate that it is zoonotic from bats. The COVID-19 has led to significant loss of lives and a tremendous economic decline in the world. Generally, the population at risk of a fatal outcome are the elderly and those who are debilitated or are immune compromised. The fatality rate is high, but now is reduced after the development of preventive vaccine although an effective treatment by drug against the virus is yet to be developed. The treatment is narrowed to the use of several anti-viral drugs, or other re-purposed drugs. Social distancing, therefore, has emerged as a putative method to decrease the rate of infection. In this review, we summarize the aspects of the disease that is so far have come to light and review the impact of the infection on our society, healthcare, economy, education, and environment.

Inaccuracy of Official Estimates of Public Health Spending in the United States, 2000-2018.

Objectives. To examine the accuracy of official estimates of governmental health spending in the United States.Methods. We coded approximately 2.7 million administrative spending records from 2000 to 2018 for public health activities according to a standardized Uniform Chart of Accounts produced by the Public Health Activities and Services Tracking project. The official US Public Health Activity estimate was recalculated using updated estimates from the data coding.Results. Although official estimates place governmental public health spending at more than $93 billion (2.5% of total spending on health), detailed examination of spending records from state governments shows that official estimates include substantial spending on individual health care services (e.g., behavioral health) and that actual spending on population-level public health activities is more likely between $35 billion and $64 billion (approximately 1.5% of total health spending).Conclusions. Clarity in understanding of public health spending is critical for characterizing its value proposition. Official estimates are likely tens of billions of dollars greater than actual spending.Public Health Implications. Precise and clear spending estimates are material for policymakers to accurately understand the effect of their resource allocation decisions.

Public healthcare expenditure and COVID-19 mortality in Spain and in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between public health expenditure per capita and the mortality rate due to COVID-19 in Europe and Spain. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to compare and contrast the mortality rate due to COVID-19 between countries and autonomous communities with higher and lower public health expenditure per capita than the mean. RESULTS: No correlation between the public health expenditure per capita and the mortality rate due to COVID-19 (r: 0.3; p = 0.14) was found among European countries or Spain's Autonomous Communities (r: 0.03; p = 0.91). No significant differences were found when comparing the mortality rate due to COVID-19 among the public health expenditure per capita groups. CONCLUSIONS: The available evidence does not support association between «low¼ public healthcare expenditure and the poor outcomes observed in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased funding for the Spanish National Health System should be earmarked for structural reforms to increase its social efficiency.